The markets are wild. I covered a lot in the video, but here’s what actually matters for your portfolio.
1. Volatility Isn’t the Same as Risk
We just saw a seven-sigma move in precious metals. That sounds scary. But here’s the thing—extreme moves in both directions are actually normal when you’re dealing with assets that countries are using for geopolitical maneuvering.
What you need to ask yourself: Am I reacting to price action, or am I following a plan?
When institutional money sells on news (like the Warsh nomination), that’s not your signal to panic. That’s them doing their thing. Your job is to watch volatility itself—when it settles, that’s when opportunities come back.
2. The Correlation Game Is Everything
If you’re not tracking how the dollar moves relative to your holdings, you’re flying blind. Period.
Right now we’ve got:
- Dollar weakening = good for exports, good for stocks and metals
- Two-year yield flat = no rate cuts soon
- Negative correlation between dollar and equities = stocks can run while dollar drops
This isn’t just theory. This is literally how money flows between assets. When one thing moves, something else has to move in response. Know those relationships and you’ll stop being surprised by “unexpected” market moves.
3. The Setup for 2026 Is Actually Pretty Darn Good
I’m not being a cheerleader here. I’m looking at what’s lining up:
The Warsh factor could be bigger than people think. Data-driven Fed chair + falling inflation in housing and energy = more rate cuts than the market’s pricing in. And conveniently timed before midterms? Come on.
Add in fiscal spending that’s just starting to hit, government buying equity stakes in strategic companies, and ongoing deregulation… you’ve got a lot of tailwinds.
But—and this is important—you’ve got to be positioned right.
Where Your Money Should Actually Be
Tech had its run. That rotation I talked about in the video? It’s already happening.
Your focus should be:
- Industrials – infrastructure spending is real
- Energy – the world still runs on it
- Small and mid-caps – they benefit most from a weaker dollar and lower rates
Precious metals? Still a play, but size it appropriately. I’ve trimmed mine because after a move like that, you wait for the dust to settle.
The One Thing You Can’t Do
Don’t overthink every headline. Seriously.
News triggers moves, but it doesn’t change the underlying setup. We’re in a growth environment with low inflation—that’s the Lead One phase I keep talking about. That’s rare. That’s valuable.
But it only works if you’re actually invested in the sectors that benefit from it.
Watch the full video for all the details on the seven-sigma move, the dollar dynamics, and exactly how I’m thinking about the Fed.
Got questions about your specific situation? Reach out. This is the kind of environment where positioning matters more than usual.
