Something’s shifting beneath the surface of the markets right now, and if you’re not paying attention, you’re missing the most important story of Q4.
It’s not about another AI stock hitting new highs. It’s not about the latest Fed commentary. And it’s definitely not what the financial media is obsessing over this week.
It’s about the US Dollar—and the ripple effects that are about to change everything.
The Dollar Story You Need to Understand
We’ve made a significant shift: moving to a core long position in the US Dollar. Not because of speculation or short-term trading tactics, but because of genuine US growth re-acceleration that’s taking us from Quad 3 through Quad 2 and into Quad 1 as we head into Q1 2026.
Now, I can already hear the pushback: “But Nate, doesn’t a strong dollar hurt stocks?”
Actually, not necessarily. A strong dollar isn’t inherently bearish for risk assets unless we’re in Quad 4 conditions. History shows it often coincides with stronger market cycles.
But here’s the critical part most people are missing…
The Warning Signs Are Flashing
There have been warning signs: “Despite being a big dollar bear, big picture, I am still betting we see a surge that can trigger both FX & Equity volatility.”
That’s exactly what’s happening now.
The dollar volatility is bleeding into equity volatility. It’s creating what I call an “air pocket of risk”—when the generals at the front finally look back and realize their soldiers fell way behind.
“When the NVDA stock machine quits being able to generate the money needed to keep the pump primed, these companies will have to have money from somewhere else, like customers.” – Samantha LaDuc
But It’s Not All Bearish
Here’s what makes this moment fascinating: amidst all this volatility, there are real opportunities emerging.
We’re favoring bonds right now—the MOVE index is hitting cycle lows, creating a low volatility environment perfect for adding duration. Precious metals remain supported with diversified positioning. Industrial metals like copper and steel stocks are showing strength. And natural gas just turned bullish, rallying about 32% in a week.
The key is knowing where to position and when to act.
The Full Story (And What It Means For Your Portfolio)
I have put together a detailed video breakdown that walks through:
- The complete USD thesis and why it matters now
- Which asset classes are positioned for opportunity
- The specific risk factors I’m monitoring
- What this all means for portfolio positioning heading into 2026
The Bottom Line
Markets don’t move in straight lines. Neither should our conversations about them.
If you’re wondering how any of this affects your specific situation—and you should be—let’s talk. Pick up the phone or send me an email. That’s what I’m here for.
And in the meantime? Watch the video. The story’s still unfolding, and you’ll want to know what happens next.
